The Reset Issue

Welcome to The Vertical, a new kind of housing and development briefing.

This started as a newsletter about permitting and land use in LA. But that was just the foundation. Now, we’re building up.

The Vertical will track the full stack of forces shaping our housing ecosystem,
from labor costs to capital flows, interest rates to inventory, and local CEQA fights to national builder consolidation.

Because if you’re building, funding, entitling, underwriting, or regulating housing in 2025, you’re not just reacting to real estate data, you’re navigating a complex, interconnected system that includes:

• Mortgage rate volatility and its pressure on both demand and feasibility

• Slowing buyer traffic and shifting absorption rates

• Labor market softness that’s starting to ripple through construction hiring

• Regional sitework bids that are pricing entire projects out before financing even begins

• Local governments floating new fees while asking for more affordable units

What You’ll Get Each Week

• Builder & Development Trends:

  What’s breaking ground, what’s backing off, and why.

• Macro & Market Moves:

  Jobs, inflation, Fed posture, consumer behavior, and bond market signals that actually matter.

• Construction Costs & Labor Pressures:

  Real data on sitework, materials, permitting, and project risk.

• Policy & Process:

  From zoning tweaks to CEQA lawsuits to local fee hikes that derail deals.

• Ground-Level Insight:

  Not generic market reports, but real world dynamics from someone who’s dealt with the plan checker, the public comment, and the pro forma often in the same week.

This isn’t just another market newsletter. It’s a playbook for navigating housing’s most complex moment in years.

👀 Coming Next Week:

The Rise of the Giants
The 2025 Builder 100 just dropped. Big builders are taking more share than ever, with small builders now closing just 45% of new homes, down from 75% in 2005. What’s driving the shift? Who’s getting squeezed out? And what does it mean for land strategy, capital access, and local control?

We’ll break down:

• How D.R. Horton, Lennar, and others are structuring deals differently in 2025

• Why private builders are struggling to compete

• And how consolidation is quietly changing who gets to shape cities

📩 Found this helpful? Forward to a colleague, broker, builder, or planner in your orbit. The Vertical is just getting started.